Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 19.372172 21.060033 22.923605 25.153072 27.774084 30.791843 34.581132
2024-10-27 17.413029 19.767502 22.575101 26.247975 31.053952 37.334056 46.558941
2024-11-03 15.539764 18.159129 21.452559 26.051774 32.597393 42.130082 58.412860
2024-11-10 14.281448 17.073067 20.735759 26.139537 34.428547 47.829631 74.778505
2024-11-17 13.347830 16.256476 20.210244 26.327117 36.372125 54.364285 97.743046
2024-11-24 12.581568 15.559019 19.727550 26.445997 38.179474 61.392774 129.901454
2024-12-01 11.834153 14.802977 19.053442 26.125661 39.108752 67.102533 168.270206
2024-12-08 11.280521 14.265384 18.632085 26.130041 40.616406 74.929013 235.994394
2024-12-15 10.747047 13.709310 18.118728 25.888000 41.563399 81.982736 335.172384
2024-12-22 10.264414 13.190331 17.610575 25.575565 42.281160 88.970390 501.841295
2024-12-29 9.852364 12.747403 17.181787 25.343938 43.121875 97.116141 869.219418
2025-01-05 9.493983 12.361852 16.811776 25.169778 44.058028 106.590251 2069.249246
2025-01-12 9.077797 11.869059 16.237079 24.552355 43.821355 111.683394 6547.127975
2025-01-19 8.981622 11.864951 16.474073 25.554226 48.031026 142.525392 NaN
2025-01-26 8.690370 11.537030 16.134532 25.345813 48.927276 158.462580 NaN
2025-02-02 8.467066 11.304720 15.942565 25.420496 50.688805 184.433505 NaN
2025-02-09 8.275536 11.112674 15.806107 25.595437 52.842466 221.014643 NaN
2025-02-16 8.088414 10.917782 15.649953 25.707040 54.864613 266.736962 NaN
2025-02-23 7.856579 10.638971 15.324477 25.400841 55.393498 300.301697 NaN
2025-03-02 7.681393 10.445710 15.142895 25.404694 57.063675 365.528992 NaN
2025-03-09 7.486864 10.212125 14.873177 25.173697 57.813149 426.715904 NaN
2025-03-16 7.295493 9.976472 14.586969 24.875540 58.238354 493.075285 NaN
2025-03-23 7.124510 9.768730 14.342300 24.654442 58.936417 589.815120 NaN